Objectives

The primary objective is to procure a mature, off-the-shelf quantitative risk analysis and decision-support solution for a three-year period. The solution will enable the South African National Space Agency (SANSA) to transition from deterministic, single-point forecasting to probabilistic modelling. This will allow decision-makers to quantify uncertainty, assess the probability and range of potential outcomes, and make informed strategic, financial, programme, project, and operational decisions.

Scope

• Supply, implement, license, train, and provide technical support for a desktop-based quantitative risk analysis application for three years.
• Deliver a fully transferable single-user license compatible with current and legacy Microsoft Windows environments.
• Integrate seamlessly with existing enterprise risk management frameworks and spreadsheet-based financial/planning models.
• Ensure strict data sovereignty and confidentiality, guaranteeing that organisational, financial, and strategic data remains inaccessible to vendors, third parties, or unauthorised personnel.
• Bidders acting as resellers must provide valid OEM authorisation or distributor appointment letters confirming legal rights to market, supply, and support the software.

Technical Requirements

• Modelling Capabilities: Native support for Monte Carlo simulation, probability distribution fitting, sensitivity analysis, scenario and stress testing, correlation/dependency mapping, and decision-tree analysis.
• Decision Support: Advanced tools for evaluating alternative courses of action under uncertainty, including quantitative decision analysis, risk treatment comparison, threshold/probability analysis, and automated management reporting.
• Security & Data Protection: Robust architecture featuring identity and access management, encryption, comprehensive audit logging, vulnerability management, disaster recovery, and guaranteed data portability. The system must explicitly prevent vendor backdoors, remote access, or automatic data transmission to third parties.
• Evaluation Threshold: Proposals must achieve a minimum of 80 out of 100 points across functionality, technical capability, and security criteria to qualify for price and preference evaluation.

Skills Requirements

• Demonstrated expertise in quantitative risk modelling, statistical analysis, and probabilistic forecasting techniques.
• Proven experience implementing enterprise-grade risk analytics platforms, including configuration, integration, and user training.
• Strong competency in information security governance, data privacy compliance, and secure software deployment practices.
• Ability to develop clear implementation methodologies and deliver comprehensive training programmes for end-users and administrators.
• Familiarity with South African public sector procurement regulations, including B-BBEE compliance, CSD registration, and tax clearance requirements.

Key Terms & Concepts

80/20 Preference System: A procurement scoring mechanism where 80 points are allocated to price competitiveness and 20 points to Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) goals, specifically targeting 51% black ownership, 40% black women ownership, and 51% ownership by black designated groups.

Monte Carlo Simulation: A computational algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to model the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction models, providing a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities rather than a single fixed value.

Fronting: A criminal offence under the B-BBEE Act where individuals or entities falsely claim black economic empowerment status or control to gain preferential procurement advantages.

CSD Registration: Mandatory enrolment in the Central Supplier Database, which verifies supplier legitimacy, tax compliance, and procurement eligibility within the South African public sector.